Dr Friederike (Fritzi) Köhler-Geib has been KfW Chief Economist and head of the company's economics department since November 2019. She analyses trends relevant for KfW in the economy, society and on the financial markets and brings a new dynamic to the economic and financial policy debate. The focus of her work lies in the analyses of economic developments and growth trends in Germany. A particular focus is placed on small and medium-sized enterprises and the role of innovation and digitalisation in improving competitiveness, as well as issues related to the goal of a climate-neutral economy. Furthermore, Dr Fritzi Köhler-Geib also actively addresses economic policy connections between Germany, Europe and the world.
“The labour market remains without surprises at the end of the summer. It is characterised by an economic slump and a shortage of skilled workers and will hardly provide any stimulus to the economy in the coming months. The number of unemployed is expected to rise from 2.6 million in 2023 to 2.8 million in 2024, increasing the unemployment rate from 5.7 to 6.0%. Unemployment is then likely to fall slightly on average in 2025. Despite the weak economy, the number of people in employment is expected to be 180,000 higher than in 2023 at 46.2 million. In 2025, it is likely to rise further to 46.3 million as the economy recovers. The shortage of skilled labour has mainly persisted despite the economic downturn. Two out of five vacancies are registered as open at the job centres for six months or longer. On average, it takes four times longer to fill a vacancy than it did 20 years ago. Despite this, there are more than three times as many jobseekers as vacancies. A major cause of the skills shortage is therefore a pronounced mismatch. To reduce this, more people need to be recruited for needs-based training and retraining. Unemployed and low-skilled workers in particular take part in further training relatively rarely. It is therefore also about strengthening personal initiative and motivation and setting incentives.”
Previous comments from Dr Fritzi Köhler-Geib
Rebuilding the economy after COVID-19 and tackling the climate crisis must go hand in hand. For Germany to achieve its target for climate action, it needs to tap into overlooked areas of potential to reduce its CO₂ emissions. In particular, this process will be essential for the transport sector. And there is even more that can be done with innovative building solutions.
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