KfW Research
Countries and Regions of the World
Papers and proceedings on economics
In view of the continued rise in global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and insufficient efforts to reduce fossil fuels, there is a threat of significant economic losses, which could lead to an estimated 19% decline in global income by 2050. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR), as a new pillar of climate policy alongside traditional strategies – adaptation and mitigation – is crucial to address the temporary temperature overshoot. However, the financial requirements for scaling up CDR technologies are enormous and must be addressed promptly. Against the backdrop of COP29, KfW Research and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research outline five key areas of action to drive market adaptation, innovation and international cooperation in the field of CO2 removal.
Further informations on COP29
Further informations on climate neutrality
Economics in Brief
The future-proof positioning of Germany's supply of mineral raw materials is key to safeguarding the country’s viability as a business location, also in view of rising minerals demand for use in future technologies. A study commissioned by KfW Research and compiled by IW Consult and Fraunhofer ISI analyses the raw material-related value added for the raw materials copper, lithium and rare earths. High dependencies exist in sectors that characterise the manufacturing industry in Germany. They are particularly pronounced in the motor vehicle and parts sector but also in the manufacture of electrical equipment, as well as electronic and optical products. Differentiated supply risks arise along the production and supply chains of the three raw materials due to various country risks and market concentrations. In view of the heterogeneous risk profiles, a modular approach can be used to make the future supply of raw materials more resilient.
Germany in the semiconductor supply chain: vulnerable on the imports side(PDF, 252 KB, accessible)
Further publications on the topic of foreign trade
The future-proof positioning of Germany's supply of mineral raw materials is key to safeguarding the country’s viability as a business location, also in view of rising minerals demand for use in future technologies. A study commissioned by KfW Research and compiled by IW Consult and Fraunhofer ISI analyses the raw material-related value added for the raw materials copper, lithium and rare earths. High dependencies exist in sectors that characterise the manufacturing industry in Germany. They are particularly pronounced in the motor vehicle and parts sector but also in the manufacture of electrical equipment, as well as electronic and optical products. Differentiated supply risks arise along the production and supply chains of the three raw materials due to various country risks and market concentrations. In view of the heterogeneous risk profiles, a modular approach can be used to make the future supply of raw materials more resilient.
How Development Finance Institutions Can Build Bridges to Unlock Private Capital
Global decarbonization and climate adaptation requires trillions of dollars of annual investment, most of it from the private sector. To achieve the goal of limiting global warming global climate protection investments must increase by at least 30% annually – three times faster than before. Development finance institutions (DFIs) are seen as key mobilizers of these flows, catalysing private financing in particular. A joint paper by BCG and KfW provides a big-picture perspective on how DFIs are innovating and evolving in sync with their ambitious climate financing goals. Along several dimensions – from the business and operating models to the necessary regulatory and policy framework – this paper explores how development and promotional banks globally can make a valuable contribution to closing the looming financing gap.
Economics in Brief
At the 28th UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) at the end of November, the first Global Stocktake (GST) process will assess progress made on climate action that was established in the Paris Agreement. Efforts to date have not been sufficient to achieve the global climate targets but there are promising approaches as to how a course correction can be made. These include the expansion of renewable energies on a broad basis, technological progress and innovation. Funding for the global target of adapting to climate change is also falling short of requirements. Here, an increase in international adaptation financing, more effective use of funds and the mobilisation of private capital are necessary building blocks for closing the gap. Finally, the urgently needed boost in international climate financing in emerging and developing countries has a decisive role to play. Transparency and global coordination are the unifying elements of all these issues.
COP28 Climate Conference: High time for a course correction and new avenues(PDF, 203 KB, accessible)
Focus on Economics
Putting a price on carbon is the most (cost-)efficient policy instrument for directing private investment away from fossil fuel energy to climate-friendly alternatives and thereby set an economically sound and long-term framework for the the necessary clean energy transformation. The introduction of national carbon prices has recently gathered momentum around the world, although there is still great heterogeneity in the pricing levels and coverage of particular sectors. Implementing carbon prices remains a challenge particularly in emerging economies. Bilateral partnerships can have a strong leverage effect on climate policy if they motivate and empower other countries to implement national carbon pricing systems. The urgently needed global coordination of climate policy could then be achievable through a consensus on a minimum price of carbon that is supported by as many countries as possible. The G7 climate club could provide a suitable framework to step up action.
Focus on Economics
The changes in the external economic environment resulting from the coronavirus crisis of 2020 and the impact of the war in Ukraine in 2022 make it necessary to take stock of Germany’s linkages in trade and value chains. Its economy is known to be closely integrated into global trade. This is also reflected in a disproportionately high share of trade on value-added basis compared with other G20 countries. With respect to Germany’s global value chains, foreign value added is nearly as important for its own exports as its domestic value added is for the exports of other countries. This offers the potential to harness the advantages of the international division of labour and to generate gains from trade but it also makes the country vulnerable to adverse external shocks.
Germany’s close integration into global trade and value chains(PDF, 353 KB, accessible)
Further information on Germany's strong link to the global economy
Focus on Economics
The size of the US economy, the depth of the capital market, the free convertibility of the currency and the trust placed in US institutions have helped the US dollar defend its position as a global reserve currency even after the end of Bretton Woods. To be sure, the share of currency reserves denominated in US dollars has fallen in the past decades, but at now roughly 60% the greenback continues to clearly assert its dominant position. In response to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, the dollar’s dominance has been used as a ‘sanctions weapon’ for the first time in history, a development that will uplift the use of local currencies and alternative payment systems in Asia. But the alternatives to the dollar as a global reserve currency are generally limited. Neither the renminbi nor the euro nor cryptocurrencies will be able to challenge the greenback for the foreseeable future.
The US dollar’s dominance remains virtually unchallenged(PDF, 235 KB, accessible)
Focus on Economics
Africa is a large market for vaccines but has very little local production capacity. The continent accounts for 25% of global demand for vaccines (not just coronavirus vaccines) but manufactures only 1% locally. During the pandemic this has created major bottlenecks in the supply of the population and caused major health issues and serious social harm. In order to remedy the situation and create better conditions for future health crises, the African Union (AU) aims to have 60% of the vaccines used in Africa manufactured on the continent by 2040. But which African countries are suitable vaccine manufacturing locations?
Economics in Brief
The war in Ukraine is adding upward pressure on global market prices of fuels and foodstuffs, which had already increased last year. Most low-income countries are net importers of both groups of products, so they are struggling with price rises. At the same time, they have little scope for additional expenditure such as subsidies or transfers because their state finances were mostly already in a very precarious state before the current developments.
Focus on Economics
China’s two longer term development goals consist in achieving high-income country status by 2025 and doubling economic output by 2035. In order to achieve the first goal, average nominal per capita gross national income will need to grow by only 4% per year on average. The second goal, however, is more ambitious. After all, the growth contribution of capital will continue to decrease, among other things because the continuing transformation of the growth model implies that investment becomes less important compared with consumption. This development must be offset by a general increase in productivity and human capital formation. The former has some catching up to do, which is masked by the country’s successes in the area of cutting-edge technology. If China succeeds in strengthening its innovation activity, competition in the global market for high-tech and medium-tech goods will intensify for Germany as well.
China’s long-term development goals: a challenge to productivity(PDF, 382 KB, non-accessible)
The private sector will have a decisive role to play in the post-Covid-19 economic recovery and more broadly to unlock Africa's growth potential, create new employment opportunities and increase productivity. As of yet, however, the private sector has been weakened by the Covid-19 crisis as most African economies didn’t have the means to cushion the impact of the crisis and, if support was granted, the support was not only small but also failed to reach the companies. Governments must improve their measures, both in terms of scale and scope.
Focus on Economics
The low number of infections on the African continent gave rise to the impression that the coronavirus pandemic has hit the region only moderately so far. Given the most recent rate of infections, this impression has turned out to be deceptive. Africa will be grappling with the consequences of the pandemic for a very long time. The lockdown measures have caused significant economic damage and health impacts.
Africa’s long COVID: health consequences and vaccine shortages(PDF, 243 KB, non-accessible)
The coronavirus crisis has left a deep mark on the German SME sector. SMEs that generate part of their turnover abroad were hit particularly hard. They were more likely than other SMEs to suffer a decline in demand, shrinking sales territories and disrupted supply chains. Estimates put the decline in SMEs’ international turnovers at a significant 17% in 2020, down to around EUR 494 billion after some EUR 596 billion in the pre-pandemic year 2019. The experience of the crisis is likely to have a lasting impact on SMEs’ global integration. Many businesses want to focus more strongly on domestic customers and suppliers in the years ahead. On the other hand, large SMEs in particular want to diversify their international business more. Only very few intend to withdraw from global value chains – the international division of labour continues to provide advantages despite the coronavirus crisis.
KfW Internationalisation Report 2021(PDF, 1 MB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
Since joining the EU, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe have seen significant growth in trade and international direct investment. German enterprises in particular have invested heavily in neighbouring Czech Republic and Poland. The increasingly evident skills shortage in the commercial-technical area in these countries, however, might hamper the cooperation. Germany’s partners have now risen to the challenge of reforming the vocational education and training system in a broad modernisation effort to make it more practice-relevant.
Focus on Economics
Since 1990, regional trade agreements have become both more numerous and more comprehensive, due in part to the stagnating multilateral negotiations within the WTO. The World Trade Organisation has recorded 305 such agreements. In addition to customs matters, they increasingly cover non-tariff trade barriers, define rules for trade and establish transnational standards. Their content reflects an evolving global trade landscape. Aspects such as services, investment and capital flows, but also digital trade, are becoming increasingly important. When countries enter into mega-regional agreements, which cover a substantial part of global trade and foreign direct investment and therefore constitute the largest plurilateral forums outside the WTO, political interests also play a role.
Pragmatism in trade policy: regional trade agreements(PDF, 228 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
The current economic crisis and the oil price decline have created major challenges for Nigeria, as it will hardly be able to raise sufficient financial resources for the investment required in the years ahead. Without the necessary investment, the start-up and tech sector will not be able to sufficiently exploit Nigeria’s great potential.
Nigeria’s tech scene between coronavirus and infrastructure deficits(PDF, 130 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
The German Federal Government regards private sector investment as crucial to Africa's economic development. However, German enterprises so far have invested relatively little in Africa. A key mechanism available to the Federal Government for promoting foreign direct investment is its set of foreign economic policy instruments. There is constant debate about whether to expand these promotional instruments with the aim of increasing the engagement of German firms in Africa. We have therefore examined the extent to which these instruments are effective in the African context and whether increasing the volume of guarantees for investments, for example, would lead to the desired result.
Economics in Brief
More and more businesses now use social media – even to recruit workers. At present, some 40% of small and medium-sized enterprises in Germany hire workers using social media, and the European average is as high as 46%. This was revealed by the European SME Survey, for which KfW Research interviewed more than 2,500 businesses in Germany, France, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom jointly with other European promotional banks.
Businesses that are heavily affected by the skills shortage in particular turn to social media. Another reason these channels are becoming increasingly important in recruiting skills is that more age cohorts who have grown up with digital media are entering the workforce. The coronavirus crisis has provided further impetus to the use of social media and is likely to boost their use in the SME sector in the medium term as well.
Social media – a tool for SMEs to recruit talent(PDF, 94 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
German-Polish economic relations have developed extremely well. Germany’s second-largest neighbour has steadily climbed the rankings of its most important trading partners. Now, however, the coronavirus crisis is calling into question established structures of cooperation, particularly in the border regions. A more intensive dialogue is now required to jointly overcome the current challenges. The restructuring of production chains that is to be expected after the coronavirus crisis could even make German-Polish cooperation grow in importance.
Focus on Economics
The debt situation of low-income countries has been back on the agenda ever since 2018, although many of these countries have benefited from earlier debt relief initiatives. The LICs did not succeed in using the debt capital they raised to generate investment momentum that would ultimately have led to convincing prosperity gains. During the current coronavirus crisis, a number of countries have already accepted debt relief and deferment offers, or are planning to do so. This will provide temporary respite for these countries but it will not solve the structural problems that are causing the debt problem.
This paper addresses selected structural aspects. One of these aspects is the inflow of FDI and the development of value chains. We will also examine the correlation between indebtedness and a specific governance aspect: statistical capacity.
What puts low income countries in this category?(PDF, 200 KB, non-accessible)
Economics in Brief
The Middle East is currently being hit by a twin crisis, the coronavirus pandemic and collapsing oil prices. The key sectors behind oil – retail, hotels, transport and tourism – have been hit particularly hard. As a result, the countries also have less money to invest. The Gulf region is one of the largest employers for workers from developing and emerging economies. The crisis in the Gulf could lead to a 20% drop in remittances. This will hit many recipient countries hard, as it will lead to a decline in income and foreign currency.
Focus on Economics
The measures taken to contain the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, the collapse in commodity prices, the disruptions in international financial markets and the economic downturn in important trading and financing partners such as the US and China have hit Latin American economies hard. The poor economic starting position and limited room for economic policy manoeuver in some countries combine with high levels of inequality to make the crisis response an enormous challenge.
Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Latin America(PDF, 169 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
The coronavirus crisis has hit Africa’s economies particularly hard. Major export markets have collapsed as a result of the global economic crisis. The costs of imports are rising and driving inflation. In order to slow the spread of the virus in Africa, governments have imposed a variety of containment measures. These, too, are further slowing the continent’s economic growth. Africa needs high growth rates because of its dynamic demographic trend.
Economics in Brief
Autumn of 2019 was marked by social and political unrest in a number of Latin American countries. Although the crises in each country were distinct in nature and origin, high inequality and inadequate public services are regarded as transnational factors.
Latin America – denouncing inequality(PDF, 102 KB, non-accessible)
Emerging Markets Spotlight
Tunisia’s economy appears to have emerged from the trough. The upheavals brought about by the Arab revolution are also transforming the country’s economy and economic policy. The government and administration are committed to dialogue with enterprises. The freedom that has been gained is strengthening the innovative capacity of local businesses. Alongside classic sectors such as agriculture and tourism, the production of higher-value goods is moving Tunisia into the spotlight. Examples are the aeronautics industry and the private health sector. In the context of these multiple transformations, Tunisia is a good location for German businesses.
Tunisia – the rise of the knowledge economy(PDF, 204 KB, non-accessible)
Economics in Brief
Estonia has experienced very strong growth since independence and today the Baltic EU state is regarded as one of central-eastern Europe’s most attractive business locations. A major factor is the efficiency of its public administration. In the coming years, expanding the advanced digitalisation of the public sector into the private sector across a broad front will be crucial.
Focus on Economics
Thirty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Germany is increasingly debating regional development and regional policy issues. These debates are necessary and important. A look at the United Kingdom shows what distortions can result from leaving entire regions behind. In the 1990s, the UK was a state with a narrower regional divide than Germany but that situation has been reversed for quite some time now. It was particularly the underdeveloped regions of England that set the damaging Brexit momentum in motion. The British example is a timely reminder that regional policy is an important lever for stability and is an ongoing task that must not be neglected.
Brexit and the UK’s regional divide: a cautionary example(PDF, 166 KB, non-accessible)
Emerging Markets Spotlight
To date, India has been scoring points primarily with low labour costs and the great potential resulting from its vast domestic market. In addition, investment conditions have improved noticeably in the past years since pro-reform Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office. However, high administrative hurdles, obscure bureaucracy, current problems in the financial sector, corruption and the shadow economy reduce the quality of India as a business location. The high informal share of the Indian economy is particularly evident in the labour market, where only around one fifth of workers are in regular employment relationships.
India – huge potential but informal sector is still too large(PDF, 218 KB, non-accessible)
Economics in Brief
The economy of South Africa – the most important location for German companies on the African continent – has suffered pronounced structural weakness for a number of years. Surprisingly, the Ministry of Finance has now presented a reform plan. It comes at a time when the population wants the ANC (African National Congress) to make more business-friendly policies.
South Africa: The debate on reforms is slowly starting(PDF, 91 KB, non-accessible)
Economics in Brief
Bulgaria has positioned itself to entering the Exchange Rate Mechanism II and ultimately to joining the euro. The EU country has long fulfilled the Maastricht convergence criteria. It also passed a recent ECB stress test which put the country's most important banks through their paces. But in order for its accession to the euro area to be crowned with success, Sofia still needs to make improvements in some areas.
The OECD has acknowledged Colombia’s economic progress by inviting the country to become its 37th member. However, productivity growth is weak and disparities within the country are very large. Digital technologies and the opportunities they offer for new business models and process optimisation enable Colombian enterprises to grow in ways that go beyond improved market access.
Colombia: Harnessing technology and innovation for economic development(PDF, 338 KB, non-accessible)
Economics in Brief
The share of foreign currency bank deposits and loans in Russia is trending downward. This is partly the result of the transition of monetary-policy strategy to inflation targeting and macroprudential measures. Revaluation effects due to the strong depreciation of the ruble at the end of 2014 masked the underlying development. For a successful reduction in the use of foreign currency, the shares would have to drop even further, particularly in deposits, and the lower levels achieved would have to be remain steady over the long term.
Use of foreign currency in Russia(PDF, 237 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
Compared with other regions, the Sub-Saharan African countries are affected by debt distress risks particularly often. Why is this? Governance problems are a frequent explanation. However, an extensive comparison of common governance standards, such as the World Governance Indicators and the Corruption Perceptions Index, fails to confirm the purported clear correlations. So the problem appears to be of a different nature.
High debt distress risk – a ‘typically’ African problem?(PDF, 296 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proclaimed by China’s President Xi Jinping in 2013 is a worldwide infrastructure investment move that is attracting a lot of attention all over the world. The motives are diverse and cannot be attributed purely to China’s pursuit of hegemony. That is a major motive all the same but so are internal economic policy and foreign trade. Even if China is mostly pursuing its own interests, the BRI projects can definitely have benefits for the participating countries. Asian regions will presumably benefit most of all. However, the BRI also faces a number of challenges and has attracted criticism. It is therefore too early to determine whether the Belt and Road Initiative will be a success.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative: too early for success stories(PDF, 337 KB, non-accessible)
South Africa is facing major economic and political challenges. The ANC was able to secure a majority again in the election around two weeks ago. Although this promises stability, a majority for the ANC does not yet mean a majority for urgently needed reforms. Despite this difficult situation, the country continues to offer growth opportunities, for example in the manufacturing sector. South Africa’s advantages compared with other locations on the continent consist primarily in a well-developed infrastructure, stable private sector conditions and a growing middle class. These advantages mean the country has a chance of being among the winners of the planned pan-African free-trade agreement.
Economics in Brief
South Africa’s current energy crisis is a further example of the country’s reform backlog. Without a reform of the energy sector the country’s economy will not be able to recover. But given its high unemployment and debt, South Africa urgently needs higher growth. As a result of these problems, Germany is losing an important partner on the African continent.
Energy crisis in South Africa – a barrier to higher economic growth(PDF, 236 KB, non-accessible)
The Czech Republic has been regarded as one of Central Eastern Europe’s most attractive locations for many years. The country has a long industrial tradition and rests on a sound economic footing. It has also created noteworthy research infrastructure in the past decade. On that basis, Germany’s neighbour is now undertaking broad efforts to modernise its economy even faster with the aim of joining the ranks of Europe’s top innovators by 2030.
Czech Republic – focus on research and development is a sound strategy(PDF, 353 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
Côte d’Ivoire is currently planning its transition from developing to emerging economy. The basis for this is an ambitious development plan by the government, which provides for a structural transformation of the economy and aims to make the robust economic growth more inclusive. A key role will be played by targeted expansion of the industrial base and modernisation of agriculture. In this respect the West African country has already enjoyed some success. However, for transformation of the agricultural sector to succeed, further specific improvements are required to the economic framework. The more swiftly these changes take place, the more likely it is that Côte d’Ivoire can achieve its ambitious development goals.
Côte d'Ivoire – more than just cocoa!(PDF, 290 KB, non-accessible)
Economics in Brief
The protest movement against the state leadership in Algeria has amplified the voices of those who evoke similarities to the dawn of the Arab Spring of 2011. This comparison comes to mind but has little justification. The protests have been peaceful and the leadership appears to be willing to compromise. Nonetheless, the country faces major economic challenges as well.
Focus on Economics
Ethiopia plans to join the league of emerging economies by 2025. This vision received new momentum under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who has been in office for the past year. The emerging industrial sector occupies a key position in this endeavour. But whether this sector will be able to lay the economic foundation for further expansion must be critically assessed with a view to Ethiopia’s past and future development and slowing global economic growth.
Ethiopia in 2025: an up-and-coming industrial hub in Africa?(PDF, 310 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
The growth effects of the US tax reform which was passed at the end of 2017 have been rather moderate so far. Private non-residential investment increased very strongly in 2018 but that was also part of a recovery trend after 2016. Private consumption grew in 2018 at roughly the same pace as in the two previous years. One explanation for the moderate effect of the reform is that fiscal stimulus measures are less effective in periods of economic expansion. The US economy is currently in its second longest cyclical upturn since records began in the 1850s. Studies have found that both marginal propensity to consume and the fiscal multiplier are lower in such periods than when stimulus measures are introduced anticyclically.
The repatriation of foreign profits, which also enjoys tax benefits, also remains below expectations and US corporations are primarily using the repatriated capital to repurchase their own shares instead of expanding capacities.
Trump's tax reform: not very effective and at the wrong time(PDF, 272 KB, non-accessible)
Economics in Brief
To the surprise of many, Muhammadu Buhari has won the presidential elections in Nigeria for the second time. As a result, hope for sweeping reforms is fading. Rather, it appears that Africa’s most populous and largest economy is unable to generate any impetus – neither for its own development nor for the continent as a whole.
Nigeria after the elections: no recovery without reforms(PDF, 236 KB, non-accessible)
Mexico's openness to trade is reflected in the fact that it has more free trade agreements than any other country. The renegotiation of NAFTA is also expected to ensure continuity in this area. However, the country must address the new phenomenon of increased return migration from the US and continue working on reaping the benefits of its open economy.
Mexico – hoping for economic policy consistency(PDF, 325 KB, non-accessible)
Economics in Brief
Germany has fewer women in leadership than the international average. Women occupy a mere 28% of middle to upper management positions, while the EU average is 31%. In Scandinavian, Baltic and Eastern European states, some businesses have more than 40% female executives. Outside Europe, women occupy a higher share of management positions, particularly in the US but also in emerging economies such as Russia, Brazil and Mexico.
The causes of the gender leadership gap are complex. The conditions for balancing work and family life are a major factor but not the only one. Lasting progress in closing the gender leadership gap requires the joint efforts of policymakers, society and business.
Economics in Brief
Access to finance is a major prerequisite for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises in developing countries to be able to use investment and growth opportunities. It is also an enormous challenge for many MSMEs. This applies to Africa more than to any other region in the world. Here, access to finance is by far the main obstacle for MSMEs. Still, it is possible to identify positive developments in many African countries.
Access to finance is main obstacle for SMEs in Africa(PDF, 366 KB, non-accessible)
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